Recently, the 43rd J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (referred to as "JPM Conference") was held in San Francisco as scheduled. As one of the largest medical investment and industry cooperation conferences in the global biopharmaceutical and healthcare sectors, the JPM Conference covers various related healthcare fields worldwide. During the conference, leaders from major multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) gave speeches summarizing their achievements in 2024, sharing valuable experience with industry partners, and also looking ahead to the new year. Their words revealed the strategic focus of their annual plans.
According to the report "2024 Biopharma Industry Insights: Investment Trends, M&A Activity, and Market Dynamics" released by J.P. Morgan in January 2025, by December 9, 2024, the total value of biopharma deals reached $171.2 billion. Although the number of annual deals has decreased, the total value of licensing deals in the biopharma sector has remained within the range of $171.2 billion to $180.5 billion since 2020, with upfront payments stabilizing at 7%.
This year's JPM Conference presented many significant developments that deserve attention! Johnson & Johnson made a bold move, spending $14.6 billion to acquire Intra-Cellular Therapies, setting a new benchmark for the industry! Eli Lilly, GSK, and AbbVie followed suit, investing billions of dollars in PI3Kα inhibitors, KIT tyrosine kinase inhibitors, and tri-specific antibodies. The strategic layouts and investment decisions of these pharmaceutical giants will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the future direction of the global pharmaceutical industry.
At the 2025 JPM Conference, Johnson & Johnson announced a major acquisition deal, acquiring Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion. This deal is the largest in the biotech industry in the past two years and the first acquisition worth over $10 billion since 2024. Intra-Cellular Therapies is a company focused on treating neurological diseases. Its drug Caplyta has been approved for treating schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, with potential breakthroughs in additional neurological indications. As an established player in the neuroscience market, Johnson & Johnson will strengthen its position in the field with this acquisition. This deal not only brings Intra-Cellular Therapies' R&D pipeline and market resources to Johnson & Johnson but also lays a solid foundation for its future growth in the neuroscience market.
On January 14, 2025, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) released important news, updating its full-year revenue for 2024 and providing its first revenue guidance for 2025, attracting widespread attention.
Eli Lilly expects global revenue for 2024 to be approximately $45 billion, a significant 32% increase compared to the previous year. This achievement is impressive and $4 billion higher than the midpoint of the initial 2024 financial guidance. However, there were some unexpected results in the fourth quarter.
The global revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to be about $13.5 billion, a 45% increase compared to the same period in 2023, with contributions from Mounjaro? ($3.5 billion) and Zepbound? ($1.9 billion). Oncology, immunology, and neuroscience drugs also performed strongly. However, this figure is about $400 million lower than the low-end of the guidance range announced in the third-quarter earnings call on October 30, 2024, a decrease of about 3%.
Despite this, Eli Lilly is confident about its performance in 2025, expecting annual revenue to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, representing a 32% growth compared to the 2024 forecast. The company expects growth to be driven by new drugs, new indications, product market expansion, sustained growth trends, capacity and R&D improvements, a diversified R&D pipeline, and international market layouts.
Since GSK split off its consumer healthcare business in 2022, it has focused on specialty drugs and vaccines, with 67 projects currently in its product pipeline. Thanks to strong growth in its specialty drug and vaccine businesses, GSK raised its 2024 revenue and operating profit forecasts twice in 2024. GSK expects 2024 full-year sales to grow by 7% to 9%, with operating profit growth expected to be between 11% and 13%.
In 2025, GSK expects five new products to be approved by regulators, including: BCMA ADC Mabepramab (Blenrep), which has been submitted for approval in multiple countries for the treatment of multiple myeloma; long-acting IL-5 antibody Depemokimab, which was submitted for approval in China in January 2025; IL-5 antibody Mepolizumab (Nucala), which has submitted an application for a new indication for eosinophilic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in December 2024; Gepotidacin, a novel oral antibiotic for urinary tract infections, which has been submitted for approval in the United States in October 2024; and MenABCWY, a five-valent meningococcal vaccine, which was submitted for approval in the United States in April 2024.
Roche’s pharmaceutical business is concentrated in five major therapeutic areas: neuroscience, oncology/hematology, immunology, renal and metabolic diseases, and ophthalmology. Currently, it has 21 products on the market, with future sales expected to continue growing.
Recently, Roche received approval for new products such as Columvi (CD3/CD2 bispecific antibody), Elevidys (gene therapy), and Piasky (complement C5 inhibitor), which are expected to drive future performance. Roche is reshaping its product pipeline through acquisitions, such as acquiring AntlerA to develop ophthalmology Wnt agonists and introducing a DLL3 ADC from Innovent to expand its presence in solid tumors.
In 2025, Roche expects six indications to receive regulatory approval, and twelve key Phase III clinical trials to make progress, with multiple new drug candidates advancing to Phase III trials, including the Alzheimer's disease drug Trontinemab.
AstraZeneca focuses on five therapeutic areas: oncology, cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases (CVRM), respiratory and immunology (R&I), vaccines and immunotherapies (V&I), and rare diseases. By the first nine months of 2024, these five areas generated $39.2 billion in revenue, an increase of 19% year-over-year.
As of 2024, AstraZeneca has 91 late-stage R&D projects underway, with peak annual revenue projections for these projects exceeding $1 billion each.
The company has made significant progress in key areas, including weight management and health risk control, antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), next-generation immune oncology (IO) bispecific antibodies, cell therapies, T-cell conjugates, and gene therapies and gene editing technologies. These advancements suggest that AstraZeneca is on track to maintain strong growth after 2030. The company forecasts the launch of at least 20 new molecular entities (NMEs) by 2030, with total revenue expected to reach $80 billion by that time.
Merck is continuously optimizing its pipeline layout, initially focusing on three major disease areas: oncology, cardiovascular/metabolism, and immunology, and gradually expanding into HIV and ophthalmology. In the HIV field, the long-acting oral HIV drug MK-8527, developed based on Islatravir, has advanced to Phase II clinical trials. In ophthalmology, Merck invested $3 billion in acquiring EyeBio in 2024, securing the triple antibody Restoret, which is undergoing Phase II/III clinical trials. By 2030, both HIV and ophthalmology products are expected to contribute billions of dollars in revenue to Merck.
Merck expects total revenue in 2024 to reach $63.9 billion. Given the potential of its existing pipeline projects, Merck has raised its 2030 oncology business revenue forecast from $20 billion to $25 billion. Merck plans to launch 20 potential blockbuster drugs in the coming years to provide new momentum for its performance growth.
In 2025, Merck will see breakthroughs with 13 products, including five oncology drugs, three cardiovascular/metabolic drugs, one autoimmune drug, and three infectious disease vaccines. Five of these products are already in Phase III clinical trials.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) introduced its product pipeline progress at the conference. Currently, BMS has 40 projects in critical Phase II/III stages across oncology/hematology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and immunology. In these four areas, BMS highlighted key investment directions, including protein degradation, cell therapies, complex biologics, and radiopharmaceuticals in oncology/hematology; thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and heart failure in cardiovascular diseases; neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases in neuroscience; and inflammation control, immune memory resetting, and promoting balance in immunology.
Over the past three years, BMS invested about $28 billion in R&D and about $27 billion in business development. Looking ahead, BMS will focus on a more diversified, low-risk investment portfolio to achieve sustained growth despite patent expiry challenges.
BMS faces patent crises for Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and other drugs in 2025, especially Revlimid, whose sales are expected to shrink to US$2 billion to US$2.5 billion in 2025, a decline of at least 42%. However, BMS is expected to support half of the company's business in 2025 with its five "star products": obenfy, Opdivo, Reblozyl, Breyanzi and Camzyos. Among them, the schizophrenia drug Cobenfy (KarXT) has a good start in 2024, with peak sales of billions of dollars. BMS CEO Chris Boerner said the company expects to launch 10 new drugs and obtain 30 new drug indications in the next five years.
At this year's JPM Conference, Pfizer announced that its key priority for 2025 is to enhance shareholder value by focusing on key areas to improve R&D efficiency, expand profitability, achieve commercial excellence, and optimize capital allocation.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla stated that the company is preparing for the "LOE (Loss of Exclusivity) wave" that will hit in the coming years. Patent losses could result in annual sales losses of approximately $17-18 billion. However, in recent years, Pfizer has responded to this threat through a series of acquisitions, such as the $43 billion purchase of Seagen, which is expected to contribute $20 billion in sales by 2030. Pfizer is also confident about its recently launched and developed drugs. For example, the first-generation CDK4/6 inhibitor Ibrance lost patent protection in 2023, but the next-generation selective CDK4 inhibitor atirmociclib is currently undergoing Phase III trials. In the first three quarters of 2024, Pfizer's total revenue reached $45.864 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase. At the JPM 2025 Conference, Pfizer provided its 2025 revenue guidance, expecting total revenue to be between $61 billion and $64 billion.
Since the spin-off of Alcon and Sandoz, Novartis has successfully transformed into a purely innovative pharmaceutical company starting in 2023. In 2024, with a focus on precision strategy, Novartis achieved low double-digit growth. Novartis focuses on four key disease areas: cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, and oncology, with 13 major blockbuster drugs currently on the market. Additionally, Novartis has established five major technology platforms: biologics, chemistry, xRNA, radioligand therapy, and gene and cell therapy. The United States, China, Germany, and Japan are its priority markets.
Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan stated at the JPM Conference that Kisqali is expected to become one of the company's best-selling drugs in history. Currently, Kisqali holds about 50% market share in metastatic breast cancer in the United States and 52% market share in early-stage breast cancer. Furthermore, the company will soon launch four potential blockbuster products, including the BTK inhibitor Remibrutinib, gene therapy OAV101 IT, ASO drug Pelacarsen, and BAFFR inhibitor Lanalumab.
Novartis expects continued growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for net sales from 2024 to 2029 (cc).
Gilead CEO Dan O'Day stated at the JPM Conference that the company reversed the revenue decline trend seen from 2021 to 2023 in 2024 and will continue to maintain positive momentum, as past investments are now translating into commercial benefits. Gilead plans to launch nine HIV products before Biktarvy loses its market exclusivity in 2033 to offset the impact of the exclusivity loss.
Currently, Gilead's core HIV product lenacapavir was approved in Europe and the U.S. in 2022 for the treatment of HIV-1 infection. It is expected to be approved for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-1 infection in the summer of 2025.
Additionally, Gilead is expanding into oncology and inflammatory diseases, such as the promising treatment potential of Anito-cel for 4L+ R/R MM, expected to be commercialized in 2026, and seladelpar (Livdelzi) in the PBC field, which has been FDA-approved. Gilead currently has over 100 innovative IND and clinical trial projects in various therapeutic areas and mechanisms of action.
Dan O'Day mentioned that existing products can generate billions of dollars in stable income, and the company can make appropriate acquisitions and establish partnerships to complement its pipeline. During the JPM 2025 Conference, Gilead introduced Leo Pharma's STAT6 inhibitor for $1.7 billion.
Bayer's Global President of Prescription Drugs, Stefan Oelrich, introduced at the JPM Conference that the company is working on launching several new products to overcome the patent expiry of the anticoagulant Xarelto. By 2026, Bayer expects to launch three major new drugs, including the menopause drug Elinzanetant, cardiovascular drug Acoramidis, and the new anticoagulant Asundexian Stroke.
As one of the early entrants into the nuclear medicine field, Bayer partnered with Algeta in 2009 to develop Xofigo, which was approved in 2013 for the treatment of advanced bone metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Sales peaked at €408 million in 2017 but have since declined. Although Xofigo did not become a blockbuster as expected, Bayer has never stopped exploring new therapies in the nuclear medicine field.
According to Bayer's presentation at the JPM Conference, the radiology division's revenue reached €1.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a 7% year-on-year growth, performing strongly.
In its clinical pipeline, Bayer currently has two nuclear medicine products in Phase I clinical trials, BAY 3546828 and BAY 3563254. These products use alpha emitters, and both employ the isotope 225Ac.
To improve profitability, Bayer is working to create a more streamlined and agile organization and has developed a new business model that focuses on key areas, improving quality, increasing productivity, and enhancing efficiency. The company has also carried out several rounds of layoffs worldwide.
Takeda focuses on drug development in three core therapeutic areas: gastroenterology, neuroscience, and oncology, with a focus on small molecules, biologics, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), and cell therapies. In 2024, Takeda's R&D investment is expected to be around $5.1 billion, a significant increase compared to previous years.
At the JPM Conference, Takeda highlighted its high-value assets in late-stage clinical trials. These new drugs are expected to generate total sales of $10 billion to $20 billion upon market entry. One example is the TYK2 inhibitor Zasocitinib, which Takeda acquired from Nimbus Therapeutics for $6 billion and is currently undergoing clinical trials for psoriasis, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis. Once launched, it is expected to generate $3 billion to $6 billion annually for the company, with significant growth potential.
 |
 |
 |
