I. Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- As of April 9, 2026, the price of diethylene glycol (DEG) in the Zhangjiagang market (East China) stood at RMB 7,875 per metric ton, up by RMB 4,650/ton from the pre-event level of RMB 3,225/ton—a surge of 144.19%.
- On April 15, the benchmark price of ethylene glycol ethyl ether acetate, as reported by Shengyishe, was RMB 10,366.67/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic Supply: A 400,000-ton-per-year DEG plant in Shaanxi is currently undergoing restart; another 600,000-ton-per-year ethylene glycol (EG) plant is scheduled for maintenance shutdown starting April 15 for 20 days. Overall domestic EG operating rate stood at 55.85% this week, down 0.65 percentage points week-on-week. The operating load of oil-based EG plants was 52.2%, down 10.19 percentage points from end-March.
- Import Supply: The Middle East remains the primary import trading partner, accounting for approximately 80% of total imports. Roughly 60% of imported cargo destined for China transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Prolonged closure of the Strait is expected to progressively reduce import volumes, with the impact becoming evident in port arrival volumes starting mid-April.

3. Inventory Situation
- Taking inventory at two major East China port storage areas as an example: as of April 9, port inventory stood at 32,300 metric tons—down 30,100 tons from the March peak of 62,400 tons, representing a decline of 48.24%.

4. Demand Situation
- Domestic unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) monthly average operating rate stood near 21%, up 12 percentage points from pre-event levels; domestic polyester industry’s monthly average operating rate reached 84%, up 6.92 percentage points from pre-event levels. However, terminal profitability has yet to be effectively passed through the value chain. Under high-cost pressure, downstream key industries still face potential further load reductions.

II. Analysis and Assessment
1. Reasons for Price Increase
- Supply Contraction: Operating load of domestic oil-based EG plants declined, reducing output; simultaneously, imports were curtailed due to regional geopolitical tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade—resulting in reduced arrivals. These dual factors significantly tightened overall DEG supply.
- Demand Recovery: UPR and polyester sector operating rates rose steadily during March–April. Although slow pass-through of terminal profitability has restrained downstream operations to relatively low loads, demand nonetheless increased versus pre-event levels. Against a backdrop of shrinking supply and recovering demand, the supply-demand structure improved structurally, accelerating inventory drawdown.

2. Key Uncertainties
- Geopolitical Risks: Regional tensions remain acute, and critical maritime routes remain closed. If the situation persists, import supply will be further constrained, limiting downside potential for DEG prices; conversely, easing tensions and resumption of imports could exert downward pressure on prices.
- Downstream Profitability Pass-Through: Terminal profitability has not yet been effectively transmitted downstream. Facing elevated raw material costs, key downstream sectors may further reduce operating loads—potentially dampening DEG demand and thereby influencing price trajectory.

III. Outlook
1. Short-Term (Remainder of April): DEG is expected to remain in a drawdown phase throughout April, with port and refinery inventories likely hitting multi-year lows. Tight physical liquidity will constrain market participants’ trading activity, prompting most holders to adopt a cautious, “price-reserving” stance. Given ongoing supply contraction, rising demand, inability of demand growth to fully offset supply deficits, and concurrent feedstock shortages across other Asian countries potentially boosting export demand, DEG prices are projected to sustain a firm trend in April—with highs possibly breaching recent multi-year peaks to exceed RMB 9,000/ton.
2. Medium-to-Long Term (May–June and beyond): Key watchpoints include: (i) evolution of geopolitical developments and their impact on import flows; (ii) progress in downstream profitability pass-through; and (iii) market absorption capacity for incremental domestic supply post-maintenance. Should geopolitical tensions ease and imports resume, while downstream sectors continue load reductions due to margin pressures, surplus supply may accumulate, triggering price correction. Conversely, if tensions persist, imports remain constrained, and downstream demand holds steady or strengthens further, prices may sustain elevated levels—or even advance higher.